Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability

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Content: climate change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
Edited by
Martin Parry Co-Chair, IPCC Working Group II
Osvaldo Canziani Co-Chair, IPCC Working Group II
Jean Palutikof Head, Technical Support Unit IPCC Working Group II
Paul van der Linden Deputy Head, Technical Support Unit, IPCC Working Group II
Clair Hanson Deputy Head, Technical Support Unit, IPCC Working Group II
Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Published for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Editorial Board: M.L. Parry and O.F Canziani (Co-Chairs), E. de Alba Alcaraz, A. Allali, L. Kajfez-Bogataj, G. Love, J. Stone, J.P. van Ypersele, J.P. Palutikof (Head of Technical Support Unit) The volume should be referred to as follows: Parry M.L., O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., 2007, Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 982pp. PUBLISHED BY THE PRESS SYNDICATE OF THE UNIVERSITY OF CAMBRIDGE The Pitt Building, Trumpington Street, Cambridge, United Kingdom CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY PRESS The Edinburgh Building, Cambridge CB2 2RU, UK 40 West 20th Street, New York, NY 10011­4211, USA 10 Stamford Road, Oakleigh, Melbourne 3166, Australia Ruiz de Alarcуn 13, 28014 Madrid, Spain Dock House, The Waterfront, Cape Town 8001, South Africa © Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007 This book is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception and to the provisions of relevant collective licensing agreements, no reproduction of any part may take place without the written permission of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. First published 2007 Printed in USA at the University Press, New York A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library Library of Congress cataloguing in publication data available ISBN 978 0521 88010-7 hardback ISBN 978 0521 70597-4 paperback Cover photo © Bjorn Svensson/Science Photo Library
Contents
Foreword
v
Preface
vii
Introduction to the Working Group II Fourth Assessment Report
1
Summary for Policymakers
7
Technical Summary
23
1 Assessment of observed changes and responses in natural and managed systems
79
2 New assessment methodologies and the characterisation of future conditions
133
3 Fresh water resources and their management
173
4 Ecosystems, their properties, goods and services
211
5 Food, fibre and forest products
273
6 Coastal systems and low-lying areas
315
7 Industry, settlement and society
357
8 Human health
391
9 Africa
433
10 Asia
469
11 Australia and New Zealand
507
12 Europe
541
13 Latin America
581
14 North America
617
15 Polar regions (Arctic and Antarctic)
653
16 Small islands
687
17 Assessment of adaptation practices, options, constraints and capacity
717
18 Inter-relationships between adaptation and mitigation
745
19 Assessing key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change
779
20 Perspectives on climate change and sustainability
811
Cross-chapter case studies
843
Appendix I Glossary
869
Appendix II Contributors to the IPCC WGII Fourth Assessment Report
885
Appendix III Reviewers of the IPCC WGII Fourth Assessment Report
899
Appendix IV Acronyms and abbreviations
933
Index
937
CD-ROM
This volume, supplementary material, index and database
of regional content, presentation material
inside front cover
.
Foreword
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was established by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme in 1988 with the mandate to provide the world community with the most up-todate and comprehensive scientific, technical and socio-economic information about climate change. The IPCC multivolume assessments have since then played a major role in motivating governments to adopt and implement policies in responding to climate change, including the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol. The "Climate Change 2007" IPCC Fourth Assessment Report could not be timelier for the world's policy makers to help them respond to the challenge of climate change.
We also wish to acknowledge and thank those governments and institutions that contributed to the IPCC Trust Fund and supported the participation of their resident scientists in the IPCC process. We would like to mention in particular the Government of the United Kingdom, which funded the Technical Support Unit; the European Commission and the Belgian Government, which hosted the plenary session for the approval of the report; and the Governments of Australia, Austria, Mexico and South Africa, which hosted the drafting sessions to prepare the report.
"Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability", is the second volume of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. After confirming in the first volume on "The Physical Science Basis" that climate change is occurring now, mostly as a result of human activities, this volume illustrates the impacts of global warming already under way and the potential for adaptation to reduce the vulnerability to, and risks of climate change. Drawing on over 29,000 data series, the current report provides a much broader set of evidence of observed impacts coming from the large number of field studies developed over recent years. The analysis of current and projected impacts is then carried out sector by sector in dedicated chapters. The report pays great attention to regional impacts and adaptation strategies, identifying the most vulnerable areas. A final section provides an overview of the interrelationship between adaptation and mitigation in the context of sustainable development. The "Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability" report was made possible by the commitment and voluntary labor of a large number of leading scientists. We would like to express our gratitude to all Coordinating Lead Authors, Lead Authors, Contributing Authors, Review Editors and Reviewers. We would also like to thank the staff of the Working Group II Technical Support Unit and the IPCC Secretariat for their dedication in organizing the production of another successful IPCC report. Furthermore, we would like to express our thanks to Dr Rajendra K. Pachauri, Chairman of the IPCC, for his patient and constant guidance to the process, and to Drs Osvaldo Canziani and Martin Parry, Co-Chairs of Working Group II, for their skillful leadership.
M. Jarraud Secretary General World Meteorological Organisation A. Steiner Executive Director United Nations Environment Director
v
.
Preface
This volumes comprises the Working Group II contribution to the IPCC Fourth Assessment (AR4) and contains a Summary for Policymakers, a Technical Summary, the chapters of the Assessment and various annexes. The scope, content and procedures followed are described in the Introduction which follows.
We thank the IPCC Secretary, Renate Christ, and the Secretariat staff Jian Liu, Rudie Bourgeois, Annie Courtin, Joelle Fernandez and Carola Saibante for their efficient and courteous attention to Working Group II needs; and Marc Peeters, WMO Conference Officer, for his work on the organisation of the Brussels Approval Meeting.
Acknowledgements This Report is the product of the work of many scientists who acted as Authors, Reviewers or Editors (details are given in the Introduction, Section D). We would like to express our sincere thanks to them for their contribution, and to their institutions for supporting their participation. We thank the members of the Working Group II Bureau (Edmundo de Alba Alcarez, Abdelkader Allali, Lucka KajfezBogataj, Geoff Love, John Stone and Jean-Pascal van Ypersele), for carrying out their duties with diligence and commitment.
Thanks go to ProClim (Forum for Climate and Global Change) and Marilyn Anderson for producing the index to this Report. Last, but by no means least, we acknowledge the exceptional commitment of the members of the Technical Support Unit throughout the preparation of the Report: Jean Palutikof, Paul van der Linden, Clair Hanson, Norah Pritchard, Chris Sear, Carla Encinas and Kim Mack.
Costs of the Technical Support Unit (TSU) and of Dr Parry were covered by the UK Department for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra). The TSU was based in the Met Office Hadley Centre in the UK. We thank David Warrilow (Defra), Dave Griggs and John Mitchell (Met Office) for their support through these agencies. Four meetings of Authors were held during the preparation of the Report, and the governments of Austria, Australia, Mexico and South Africa, through their Focal Points, kindly agreed to act as hosts. The Approval Session of the Working Group II contribution to the Fourth Assessment was held in Brussels at the generous invitations of the Government of Belgium, through Martine Vanderstraeten, and the European Community, through Lars Mueller. We thank all these governments, institutions and individuals for their hospitality and hard work on behalf of the Working Group II process.
Rajendra Pachauri Chair IPCC Martin Parry Co-Chair IPCC Working Group II Osvaldo Canziani Co-Chair IPCC Working Group II
vii
Introduction to the Working Group II Fourth Assessment Report
Introduction
A. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was established by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme in 1988, in response to the widespread recognition that human-influenced emissions of greenhouse gases have the potential to alter the climate system. Its role is to provide an assessment of the understanding of all aspects of climate change. At its first session, the IPCC was organised into three Working Groups. The current remits of the three Working Groups are for Working Group I to examine the scientific aspects of the climate system and climate change; Working Group II to address vulnerabilities to, impacts of and adaptations to climate change; and Working Group III to explore the options for mitigation of climate change. The three previous assessment reports were produced in 1990, 1996 and 2001. B. The Working Group II Fourth Assessment The decision to produce a Fourth Assessment Report was taken by the 19th Session of the IPCC at Geneva in April 2002. The report was to be more focussed and shorter than before. The Working Group II contribution was to be finalised in mid2007.
The IPCC Fourth Assessment is intended to be a balanced assessment of current knowledge. Its emphasis is on new knowledge acquired since the IPCC Third Assessment (2001). This requires a survey of all published literature, including non-English language and `grey' literature such as government and NGO reports. Two meetings were held in 2003 to scope the Fourth Assessment, from which emerged the outline for the Working Group II Assessment submitted to IPCC Plenary 21 in November 2003 for approval and subsequent acceptance. The Report has twenty chapters which together provide a comprehensive assessment of the climate change literature. These are shown in Table I.1. The opening chapter is on observed changes, and addresses the question of whether observed changes in the natural and managed environment are associated with anthropogenic climate change. Chapter 2 deals with the methods available for impacts analysis, and with the scenarios of future climate change which underpin these analyses. These are followed by the core chapters, which assess the literature on present day and future climate change impacts on systems, sectors and regions, vulnerabilities to these impacts, and strategies for adaptation. Chapters 17 and 18 consider possible responses through adaptation and the synergies with mitigation. The two final chapters look at key vulnerabilities, and the interrelationships between climate change and sustainability. Chapters 9 to 16 of the Working Group II Fourth Assessment consider regional climate change impacts. The definitions of these regions are shown in Table I.2.
Table I.1. The chapters of the Working Group II contribution to the IPCC Fourth Assessment. Section A. ASSESSMENT OF OBSERVED CHANGES 1. Assessment of observed changes and responses in natural and managed systems Section B. ASSESSMENT OF FUTURE IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION: SYSTEMS AND SECTORS 2. New assessment methodologies and the characterisation of future conditions 3. Freshwater resources and their management 4. Ecosystems, their properties, goods and services 5. Food, fibre and forest products 6. Coastal systems and low-lying areas 7. Industry, settlement and society 8. Human health Section C. ASSESSMENT OF FUTURE IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION: REGIONS 9. Africa 10. Asia 11. Australia and New Zealand 12. Europe 13. Latin America 14. North America 15. Polar regions (Arctic and Antarctic) 16. Small islands Section D. ASSESSMENT OF RESPONSES TO IMPACTS 17. Assessment of adaptation practices, options, constraints and capacity 18. Inter-relationships between adaptation and mitigation 19. Assessing key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change 20. Perspectives on climate change and sustainability 2
Introduction
Table I.2. Countries and territories by region (see Chapters 9 to 16) for the Working Group II Fourth Assessment.
Africa Algeria Burkina Faso Chad Djibouti Ethiopia Guinea Liberia Mali Namibia Rwanda South Africa The Gambia Zambia
Angola Burundi Congo Egypt Gabon Guinea-Bissau Libya Mauritania Niger Senegal Sudan Togo Zimbabwe
Benin Cameroon Congo, Democratic Rep. of Equatorial Guinea Gambia Kenya Madagascar Morocco Nigeria Sierra Leone Swaziland Tunisia
Botswana Central African Republic Cфte d'Ivoire Eritrea Ghana Lesotho Malawi Mozambique Reunion Somalia Tanzania Uganda
Asia Afghanistan Brunei Darussalam India Israel Korea, Dem. People's Rep. Laos Myanmar Papua New Guinea Saudi Arabia Tajikistan United Arab Emirates
Bahrain Cambodia Indonesia Japan Korea, Republic of Lebanon Nepal Philippines Singapore Thailand Uzbekistan
Bangladesh China Iran, Islamic Republic of Jordan Kuwait Malaysia Oman Qatar Sri Lanka Turkey Vietnam
Bhutan East Timor Iraq Kazakhstan Kyrgyz Republic Mongolia Pakistan Russia ­ East of the Urals Syria Turkmenistan Yemen
Australia and New Zealand Australia
New Zealand
Europe Albania Azerbaijan Bulgaria Estonia Germany Italy Luxembourg Montenegro Romania Slovak Republic Switzerland Vatican City, State of
Andorra Belarus Croatia Finland Greece Latvia Macedonia Norway Russia ­ West of the Urals Slovenia The Netherlands
Armenia Belgium Czech Republic France Hungary Liechtenstein Moldova, Republic of Poland San Marino Spain Ukraine
Austria Bosnia and Herzegovina Denmark Georgia Ireland Lithuania Monaco Portugal Serbia Sweden United Kingdom
Polar Regions Antarctic
North of 60°N (including Greenland and Iceland)
Latin America Argentina Chile El Salvador Honduras Paraguay Venezuela
Belize Colombia French Guiana Mexico Peru
Bolivia Costa Rica Guatemala Nicaragua Suriname
Brazil Ecuador Guyana Panama Uruguay
North America Canada
United States of America
Small islands: states and non-autonomous small islands (this list is not definitive)
Anguilla
Antigua and Barbuda
Aruba
Bahamas
Barbados
Bermuda
Christmas Island
Comoros
Cook Islands
Cyprus
Dominica
Dominican Republic
Fiji
Grenada
Haiti
Kiribati
La Rйunion
Maldives
Marshall Islands
Mauritius
Nauru
Pitcairn Islands
Saint Kitts and Nevis
Saint Lucia
Samoa
Saint Pierre & Miquelon
Sгo Tomй & Prнncipe
Solomon Islands
Tonga
Trinidad and Tobago
Vanuatu
Ascension Island Cape Verde Cuba Fed. States of Micronesia Jamaica Malta Palau Saint Vincent & Grenadines Seychelles Tuvalu
3
Introduction
C. Cross-chapter case studies Early in the writing of the Working Group II contribution to the Fourth Assessment, there emerged themes of environmental importance and widespread interest which are dealt with from different perspectives by several chapters. These themes have been gathered together into `cross-chapter case studies', which appear in their entirety at the end of the volume and are included in the CD-ROM which accompanies this volume. A `roadmap' in Table I.3 of this volume shows where the cross-chapter case study material appears in the individual chapters. Where material appears in the individual chapters which contributes to these case studies, it is presented against a blue background. The four cross-chapter case studies are: 1. The impact of the European 2003 heatwave 2. Impacts of climate change on Coral Reefs 3. Megadeltas: their vulnerabilities to climate change 4. Indigenous knowledge for adaptation to climate change D. Index and database of regional content This Assessment is based on the review of a very large amount of literature for all parts of the world. For those interested in accessing this literature for a given region, a regional index is provided. This is in the form of a datebase on the CD-ROM which accompanies this volume. This database contains in full all references in this volume and can be viewed by region and topic. E. Procedures followed in this Assessment by the authors, reviewers and participating governments In total, the Working Group II Fourth Assessment involved 48 Co-ordinating Lead Authors (CLAs), 125 Lead Authors (LAs), and 45 Review Editors (REs), drawn from 70 countries. In addition, there were 183 Contributing Authors and 910 Expert Reviewers. Each chapter in the Working Group II Fourth Assessment had a writing team of two to four CLAs and six to nine LAs. Led by the CLAs, it was the responsibility of this writing team to produce the drafts and finished version of the chapter. Where necessary, they could recruit Contributing Authors to assist in their task. Three drafts of each chapter were written prior to the production of the final version. Drafts were reviewed in two separate lines of review, by experts and by governments. It was the role of the REs (two to three per chapter) to ensure that the review comments were properly addressed by the authors.
The authors and REs were selected by the Working Group II Bureau from the lists of experts nominated by governments. Due regard was paid to the need to balance the writing team with proper representation from developing and developed countries, and Economies in Transition. In the review by experts, chapters were sent out to experts, including all those nominated by governments but not yet included in the assessment, together with scientists and researchers identified by the Working Group II Co-Chairs and Vice-Chairs from their knowledge of the literature and the global research community.
F. Communication of uncertainty in the Working Group II Fourth Assessment
A set of terms to describe uncertainties in current knowledge is common to all parts of the IPCC Fourth Assessment, based on the Guidance Notes for Lead Authors of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report on Addressing Uncertainties1, produced by the IPCC in July 2005.
Description of confidence On the basis of a comprehensive reading of the literature and their expert judgement, authors have assigned a confidence level to the major statements in the Report on the basis of their assessment of current knowledge, as follows:
Terminology Very high confidence High confidence Medium confidence Low confidence Very low confidence
Degree of confidence in being correct At least 9 out of 10 chance of being correct About 8 out of 10 chance About 5 out of 10 chance About 2 out of 10 chance Less than a 1 out of 10 chance
Description of likelihood Likelihood refers to a probabilistic assessment of some welldefined outcome having occurred or occurring in the future, and may be based on quantitative analysis or an elicitation of expert views. In the Report, when authors evaluate the likelihood of certain outcomes, the associated meanings are:
Terminology Virtually certain Very likely Likely About as likely as not Unlikely Very unlikely Exceptionally unlikely
Likelihood of the occurrence/ outcome >99% probability of occurrence 90 to 99% probability 66 to 90% probability 33 to 66% probability 10 to 33% probability 1 to 10% probability <1% probability
1 http://www.ipcc.ch/activity/uncertaintyguidancenote.pdf 4
Table I.3. Cross-chapter Case Studies: location in text. The impact of the European 2003 heatwave Topic: Scene-setting and overview The European heatwave of 2003 Impacts on sectors Ecological impacts of the European heatwave 2003 European heatwave impact on the agricultural sector Industry, settlement and society: impacts of the 2003 heatwave in Europe The European heatwave 2003: health impacts and adaptation
Chapter: Chapter 12 Chapter 4 Chapter 5 Chapter 7 Chapter 8
Impacts of climate change on coral reefs Present-day changes in coral reefs Observed changes in coral reefs Environmental thresholds and observed coral bleaching Future impacts on coral reefs Are coral reefs endangered by climate change? Impacts on coral reefs Climate change and the Great Barrier Reef Impact of coral mortality on reef fisheries Multiple stresses on coral reefs Non-climate-change threats to coral reefs of small islands
Chapter 1 Chapter 6 Chapter 4 Chapter 6 Chapter 11 Chapter 5 Chapter 16
Megadeltas: their vulnerabilities to climate change Introduction Deltas and megadeltas: hotspots for vulnerability Megadeltas in Asia Megadeltas in Asia Climate change and the fisheries of the lower Mekong ­ an example of multiple stresses on a megadelta fisheries system due to human activity Megadeltas in the Arctic Arctic megadeltas Case study of Hurricane Katrina Hurricane Katrina and coastal ecosystem services in the Mississippi delta Vulnerabilities to extreme weather events in megadeltas in a context of multiple stresses: the case of Hurricane Katrina
Chapter 6 Chapter 10 Chapter 5 Chapter 15 Chapter 6 Chapter 7
Indigenous knowledge for adaptation to climate change Overview Role of local and indigenous knowledge in adaptation and sustainability research Case studies Adaptation capacity of the South American highlandsґ pre-Colombian communities African indigenous knowledge systems Traditional knowledge for adaptation among Arctic peoples Adaptation to health impacts of climate change among indigenous populations
Chapter 20 Chapter 13 Chapter 9 Chapter 15 Chapter 8
Introduction Location in chapter: 12.6.1 Box 4.1 Box 5.1 Box 7.1 Box 8.1 Section 1.3.4.1 Box 6.1 Box 4.4 Section 6.4.1.5 Box 11.3 Box 5.4 Box 16.2 Box 6.3 Section 10.6.1, Table 10.10 Box 5.3 Section 15.6.2 Box 6.4 Box 7.4 Box 20.1 Box 13.2 Section 9.6.2 Section 15.6.1 Box 8.6
5
Introduction
G. Definitions of key terms Climate change in IPCC usage refers to any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity. This usage differs from that in the Framework Convention on Climate Change, where climate change refers to a change of climate that is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and that is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods.
Adaptation is the adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities. Vulnerability is the degree to which a system is susceptible to, and unable to cope with, Adverse Effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate change and variation to which a system is exposed, the sensitivity and adaptive capacity of that system.
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