Slocan Valley Elk Study Aerial Survey Report

Tags: Slocan Valley, Model 90, Aerial Survey, elevation, Study, Variance, Slocan Valley Elk Study, study area, snow cover, Aerial Survey Report March 2005, population estimate, Air Protection, mature bulls, sighting locations, sighting location, Cr, elevations, total population, Columbia Basin Fish and Wildlife Compensation Program, Total Group Count, elk population, British Columbia, British Columbia Ministry of Forests, population, Ministry of Water, Resources Inventory Committee, Air Protection Nelson, BC March 2005, population estimates, Ministry of Sustainable Resource Management, Water Supply Outlook
Content: Slocan Valley Elk Study Aerial Survey Report 2004 Prepared for: Columbia Basin Fish and Wildlife Compensation Program Prepared by: Leo DeGroot Ministry of Water, Land, and Air Protection Nelson, BC March 2005
Slocan Valley Elk Study ­ Aerial Survey Report
March 2005
ABSTRACT An aerial survey was completed in February 2004 to provide a population estimate for the Slocan Valley Elk Study area. This survey covered the complete study area below 1200 meters in elevation. 188 elk were spotted including eight of the 43 collared elk. Two different mark ­ resight programs estimate the population at 923 and 1010 animals respectively. A sightability model was also used; it determined a population estimate of 362 elk. The large discrepancy in population estimates may result from a combination of the high vegetative cover over much of the study area, the lack of fresh snow, and the lack of complete snow cover. Current harvest levels are based on an elk population of 375, we believe the harvest could be based on a population of 600 ­ 700 elk.
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Table of Contents ABSTRACT ................................................................................................................................................... ii TABLE OF CONTENTS .............................................................................................................................. iii INTRODUCTION ...........................................................................................................................................1 STUDY AREA................................................................................................................................................1 METHODS......................................................................................................................................................2 Elk Capture and Collaring ...........................................................................................................................3 Aerial Survey...............................................................................................................................................3 Mark Resight ...............................................................................................................................................3 Sightability Model .......................................................................................................................................3 RESULTS........................................................................................................................................................4 Mark Resight ...............................................................................................................................................6 Sightability Model .......................................................................................................................................7 DISCUSSION .................................................................................................................................................7 MANAGEMENT RECOMMENDATIONS...................................................................................................7 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS.............................................................................................................................8 LITERATURE CITED....................................................................................................................................8 APPENDIX A ..............................................................................................................................................11 APPENDIX B...............................................................................................................................................13
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INTRODUCTION Rocky Mountain Elk (Cervus elaphus nelsoni), are an indigenous ungulate in the Kootenay region of British Columbia. Some populations in the West Kootenays were supplemented in the early 1970's with transplants of 75 elk into the Syringa Creek area and 49 elk into the Blueberry ­ Paulsen area (Demarchi, 1973). These elk were taken from Banff and Jasper National Parks. Many residents place a high value on the elk for hunting, viewing, or simple aesthetic reasons. For some other residents, they are considered to be problem wildlife due to the damage that they cause to gardens, orchards, and crops. Wildlife managers are attempting to satisfy the differing sets of values, but lack critical local information, especially in the West Kootenay (Serrouya, 2002). The Slocan Valley Elk Study, initiated in 2002, is designed to supply this missing information, so that management efforts can meet a wider range of values. The project is jointly funded by the Habitat Conservation Trust Fund (HCTF) from the Arrow Wildlife trust account, the Columbia Basin Fish and Wildlife Compensation Program (CBFWCP) and the Ministry of Water, Land, and Air Protection (MWLAP). The MWLAP is implementing and administering the project. This aerial survey and determination of a population estimate was a key component of the overall study. The February 2004 survey was primarily funded by the CBFWCP. This report presents the results of the aerial survey. STUDY AREA The study area is approximately 800 km2 and is located in the West Kootenay region of south-east British Columbia. It includes the southern 20 km of the Slocan Valley from Passmore south-east to where the Slocan River joins the Kootenay River, 20 km of the Kootenay River Valley from this point south-west to Castlegar, and the Pass Creek Valley ­ Krestova area north and east of Castlegar (Figure 1). This area is in Wildlife Management Units 4-08, 4-15, 4-16, and 4-17, the Nelson ­ Creston Electoral Area, and the Arrow/Boundary Forest District. Valley bottoms are generally narrow, between 450 and 600 meters above sea level in elevation, and are largely private land in a rural residential setting. Approximately 5000 people reside in this area (Statistics Canada, 2001). There is some small scale agriculture which includes beef cattle farming, hay production, and fruit and berry crops. Areas above the valley bottoms are predominately Crown land, and are generally of a steep gradient. Commercial forestry is a major use of the Crown land. The area is in the interior wet belt, and falls within several biogeoclimatic zones. Areas below approximately 1500 meters in elevation fall within the Interior Cedar Hemlock (ICH) zone, areas between approximately 1500 and 2000 meters are in the Engelmann
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Spruce ­ Subalpine Fir (ESSF) zone. Areas higher in elevation are in the Alpine Tundra (AT) zone (Braumandl and Curran, 1992).
Gr o hma n C
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Co t Cr k r l
,
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Slocan Park
Apex Creek
Beas ley Corra
Bonnington
Linn
Falls
Sout h Sloc an
Taghum
Granit e
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C r esce nt
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k
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Siw ash Mtn Gras sy Mountain
rie E
e Cr e
Bar r e k
1:250,0 00
2 0 2 Kilometers
Figure 1. The area covered by the Slocan Valley Elk Study is outlined by the ellipse. The contour (grey) lines are 200 meters in elevation apart.
METHODS We captured and attached collars to fifty elk within the study area during the 2002/03 and 2003/04 winters using corral traps. The collars were attached to monitor elk movements, however the presence of collared elk allowed the use of mark ­ resight methodology of population estimation (Krebs, 1989, Seber, 1982, White, 1996). A sightability model developed by the Idaho Department of Fish and Game (Unsworth, et al, 1999) provided an alternate population estimation method from the aerial survey data.
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Elk Capture and Collaring Sixteen of 49 elk collared received both a VHF collar (Lotek Wireless, Newmarket, Ontario) and a visual collar with a unique letter identifying the individual (Wheelers Custom Upholstery, Nelson, BC). Twenty five elk received only a visual collar. Eight elk received a Global Positioning System (GPS) collar (Advanced Telemetry Systems (ATS), Isanti, Minnestota) (four GPS collars were actually used, they were removed after 10 months, refurbished, and attached to different animals the second winter). The VHF and four GPS collared elk were all within the study area at the time of the survey. We presume that all of the elk fitted with visual collars were also within the study area. One collared elk had been taken by a hunter, and another killed on a highway. As a result, we estimate that 43 marked elk were within the study area. Aerial Survey We divided the study area into 12 sub units using boundaries developed previously by the CBFWCP (Heaven et al, 1998). Areas above 1200 meters in elevation were not included in the sub units as elk were not expected to use these areas during the winter due to the deep snow depth. (Snow depth was very close to the long term average at 1200 meters elevation and at lower elevations (MWLAP, 2004)). The sub units were of a size that could be flown in 1-2 hours, with breaks between sub units that were easily identifiable from the air. The sub units were stratified from 1 (low) to 3 (high) depending on usage by elk based on local knowledge. We conducted the aerial survey between February 20 - 25, 2004 using a Bell Jet Ranger 206 (Kokanee Helicopters, Nelson, BC). Standard aerial survey methods were used (MSRM, 2002, Unsworth et al, 1999, Heaven et al, 1998). Three observers in addition to the pilot were employed during the entire survey. Strip transects were flown over the gentler valley bottoms with the width dependent on the openness of the vegetation. Elevational contours of 100 ­ 130 meters were used over the valley sides. Flight lines and locations of animals were marked on a 1:50,000 map. All 12 sub units were surveyed. Mark Resight In order to use the mark resight method of population estimation, the sighting of each collared elk with the collar color and letter, was recorded, in addition to a total count. The collar details allowed us to identify the individual animal.
Sightability Model To meet the requirements of the sightability model the percentage of the ground covered by snow and the percentage covered by trees and shrubs was recorded for each group of elk spotted. In addition, when possible the animals were classified as to gender, and the
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bulls to the number of points on their antlers. Where possible the number of calves was recorded as well. RESULTS A total of 188 elk were observed. The results ranged from 1 to 31 elk per sub unit with an average of 16. Figure 2 illustrates the number of elk per subunit. A breakdown results in 60 cows, 52 bulls, 11 calves, and 65 unclassified. The unclassified category was used when the spotters couldn't distinguish between cows and calves. Group size ranged from single animals to 16 with a mean of 3.1. Larger groups usually consisted of cows and calves, with the occasional spike bull. The mature bulls were usually alone or in small groups. The elk were spotted at elevations ranging from 500 to 1140 meters above sea level, with an average of 848 meters. Mature bulls were found at slightly lower elevations (819 meters) than cows, calves, and spike bulls (857 meters). Figures 3 and 4 illustrate the elevations of the observed elk.
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49°30'
49°30' k re C e
Elk Density by Survey Sub Unit - Slocan Valley Elk Study
117°50'
117°40'
117°30'
117°20'
S LOCAN
L I T TL E
Cr e ek 82F .062
Winlaw
82F .063
Lebahdo
Mt Ec cles
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Cr eek
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G r o hman
4-16-07
Spr o u l
S (at map centre)
rns a rd yb Lad
i ke
iry A
Cr e ek
Passmore 4-17-15
82F .053
82F 11
82F .054 e
C reek
Apex Creek
82F .052
Slocan Park
Taghum
Granite
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I V E R Blewett R Fo r t yn
N
4-16-15 Slocan
i ne
C re scen t K OO T E N A Y
Krestova r C
Valley
4-08-02
Cr
82F .044
82F .042
Cr eek
Goos e
Shoreac r8e2sF .043 Glade 4-16-14
Copper Mtn
4-15-14 4-16-13 Tarrys
4-08-08
Pass Creek
Ska tt ebo
Siwash Mtn
B
Gibson Creek
Thrums
Reach
Kraft 4-15R-o1b2son
Raspberry
4-08-07
82F .034
E
Robson
C
O82LF .0U32M
B
West
I
Castlegar A
Brilliant
82F .033
Grassy Mountain
rie
ry 117°50'
Cr eek
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Kinnaird 117°40'
Ootischenia
82F 06 117°30'
C
117°20' 49°20'
1:250,000 Elk per Sub Unit 1-3 4-9 10 - 16 17 - 25 26 - 31
Ministry of Water, Land and Air Protection "Kootenay Region" February 11, 2005
49°20' Sy r i n ga Ck
Figure 2. Number of elk sighted per sub unit during the aerial survey.
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Number of Cows, Calves, and Spike Bulls Number of Bulls
Cows, Calves, Spike Bulls 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 More Elevation (m)
Mature Bulls 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 More Elevation (m)
Figures 3 & 4. Number of elk observed at the range of elevations. Snow cover at the sighting locations ranged from 0 - 100% with a mean of 77% (Figure 5) No new snow had fallen within two weeks of the survey. Vegetative cover at these same locations ranged from 10 ­ 90 % with a mean of 43% (Figure 6). Coniferous forest was the most common overstory vegetation, found at 80% of the sighting locations. The other 20% of the sighting locations were evenly divided between a deciduous forest overstory and no overstory with a large shrub understory. Appendix A contains the details for each sighting location. The weather was clear and calm except on the 25th when it was overcast and calm. Temperatures ranged from -2 to + 4 degrees Celsius.
Percentage of Elk Sighted Percentage of Elk Sighted
30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 0
Elk by Vegetative Cover 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%
Elk by Snow Cover 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Vegetation Cover (%)
Snow Cover (%)
Figures 5 & 6. Percentages of elk sighted in the various vegetation and snow cover classes.
In addition to the elk, 71 mule deer, 40 white tail deer, 3 moose, and 28 mountain goats were spotted.
Mark Resight Of the 43 marked elk, 8 were sighted during the survey. The Peterson method (Krebs, 1989) of population estimation altered to reduce bias (Seber, 1982) using the Poisson approximation for small samples estimates a total population of 923 elk (570 ­ 1502 p = 0.10). 6
Slocan Valley Elk Study ­ Aerial Survey Report
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The Noremark program using a maximum likelihood joint hyper geometric estimator for closed populations (White, 1996) estimates a total population of 1010 elk (644-1817 p= 0.10) Sightability Model The sightability model estimates a total population of 362 elk (297 ­ 427) (p = 0.10). The estimation breakdown indicates 144 cows, 94 branch antlered bulls, 22 spike bulls, 18 calves, and 85 unclassified. Appendix B contains the full model output. DISCUSSION The two mark - resight methods estimated populations of 923 and 1010 elk respectively, while the sightability model provided an estimate of 362 elk. The ratio of cows to bulls and calves was not analyzed due to the large percentage of unclassified animals. We felt that the sightability model may have produced biased results on the south and west facing slopes, as many of the elk were bedded down on the bare ground next to the conifer trees. Snow cover on these slopes ranged from 60 ­ 90%; however the elk were choosing the snow free areas, which may better fit a lower snow cover estimate. We experimented by running the model with the snow cover percentages on the south and west facing slopes reduced to 30 ­ 40%. The results only increased the estimation by 17 elk, not enough to explain the large gap between the sightability model estimate and the mark ­ resight estimates. The large discrepancy in population estimates may result from a combination of the lack of fresh snow, the lack of complete snow cover, and the high vegetative cover over much of the study area. The sightability model is designed to compensate for dense forest conditions; however patchy snow conditions are mentioned as a weakness of the model (Unsworth et al. 1999). Gasaway et al. (1986) consider old snow with some vegetation showing through as poor conditions for moose surveys. They also state that a precise and unbiased estimate for moose sightability cannot be achieved even through intensive searches in semi open coniferous forest, and is futile in closed canopy coniferous forests. These factors, while observed for moose surveys, could be very similar for elk surveys and may explain the fact that only eight of the 43 marked elk were sighted during the survey. The low resight number produces wide confidence intervals in the mark ­ resight estimates. A combined and rounded best estimate from this survey is an elk population in the study area of 600 to 700 elk, within but at the conservative end of the mark ­ resight Confidence Limits and above the population estimate of the sightability model. Estimates by the Ministry of WLAP prior to this survey indicated a population within the study area of 375 elk. The desired harvest rate has been set at 10% of the population annually, between 1999 and 2001 33 animals have been harvested annually (MWLAP, 2002). The absence of systematic previous surveys prevents calculation of a population trend.
MANAGEMENT RECOMMENDATIONS
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The lack of a precise new population estimate and the fact that the current harvest rate is based on a population lower than the estimate derived from this survey suggest that the present harvest rate is conservative. Cow/calf ratios and population growth parameters have not been calculated here but will be considered in developing future harvest rates. A revised harvest strategy will require consideration of the population goals. In the mean time we recommend that the current harvest be based on a population estimate of 600 ­ 700 elk, which is at the low end of the population range as determined by the mark ­ resight methods. Other adjustments to spatial and temporal aspects of the harvest will depend on outcomes of other parts of this study. If harvest adjustments do not reduce the incidents of elk causing damage to human property, it may be prudent to conduct another aerial survey. To improve the results in an efficient manner, we recommend that the five sub units where a low number of elk were sighted in this survey not be resurveyed. The effort could then be concentrated in the other seven subunits. In addition, we recommend that future surveys take place during conditions of 100% snow cover, which in this area are likely to occur during December and January. A survey conducted while the current VHF collars are still active (until approximately 2009) would allow the mark resight methodology to be used again. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The Columbia Basin Fish and Wildlife Compensation Program (CBFWCP) provided funding to cover the helicopter costs for the aerial survey. Observers were funded by the CBFWCP and the Ministry of Water, Land, and Air Protection (MWLAP). The Habitat Conservation Trust Fund (HCTF) from the Arrow Wildlife Trust Account provided much of the funding for the capture / collaring segment of the study. The MWLAP provided office space, vehicles, and many miscellaneous items. G. Woods from the MWLAP initiated the study and has provided invaluable assistance throughout. D. Wassick, Kokanee Helicopters provided expert piloting. Observers during the aerial survey were D. Fear, M. Marello, J. Gwilliam, R. Clarke, D. Miller, and L. DeGroot. D. Fear, M. Marello, W. Savinkoff, C. Stubbe, C. Tarala, P. Sargent, D. Moore, T. Appleby, B. Park, S. Petrovcic, G. Pavan, and S. Shannon played a large part in the capture and collaring success. R. Clarke, J. Gwilliam, J. Krebs, and G. Woods reviewed an earlier draft of this report and provided valuable input.
LITERATURE CITED Braumandl, T.F., and M.P. Curran. 1992. A field guide for the site identification for the Nelson Forest Region. British Columbia Ministry of Forests, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada Demarchi, R.A. 1973. File Note. Summary of elk transplants - Kootenay Region, Ministry of Water, Land and Air Protection. ­ 1970-73.
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Gasaway, W. C., S. D. DuBois, D. J. Reed, and S. J. Harbo. 1986. Estimating moose population parameters from aerial surveys. Biological Papers No. 22, University of Alaska ­ Fairbanks, Alaska, USA. Heaven, P.C., M.T. Tinker, and I. Adams. 1998. Ungulate monitoring plan. Unpublished report prepared for the Columbia Basin Fish and Wildlife Compensation Program, Athalmer, BC. Krebs, C.J. 1989. Ecological Methodology. Harper and Rowe Publishers, New York, New York, USA MELP (Ministry of Environment, Lands, and Parks).1998. Live Animal Capture and Handling, Guidelines for Wild Mammals, Birds, Amphibians, and Reptiles, Version 2.0. Resources Inventory Committee, Province of British Columbia, Canada MSRM (Ministry of Sustainable Resource Management). 2002. Aerial Based Inventory Methods for Selected Ungulates, Version 2.0. Resources Inventory Committee, Province of British Columbia, Canada MWLAP (Ministry of Water, Land and Air Protection). 2002. Elk resident limited entry hunt authorization numbers, 2002. Unpublished data. MWLAP (Ministry of Water, Land and Air Protection). 2004. Snowpack and water supply Outlook for British Columbia. Available on the internet: http://wlapwww.gov.bc.ca/rfc/archive/2004/200403/bulletin.htm Accessed on January 7, 2005 Seber, G.A.F. 1982. Estimation of Animal Abundance and Related Parameters. 2nd Edition. Pages 37 ­ 43 in Krebs, C.J. 1989. Ecological Methodology. Harper and Rowe Publishers, New York, New York, USA Serrouya, R. 2002. Slocan Valley Elk Study, Project Proposal. Submitted to the Habitat Conservation Trust Fund, Ministry of Water, Land, and Air Protection, Province of British Columbia, Canada Statistics Canada, 2001. Regional District of Central Kootenay Community Profile. Available on the internet: http://geodepot.statcan.ca/Diss/CP2001/Community.cfm?App=CP01&ID=11650&Pl aceName=pass%20creek&SEARCH=BEGINS&lang=0&theme=csd&code=5903056 &Province=59 Unsworth, J. W., F. A. Leban, E. O. Garton, D. J. Leptich, and P. Zager. 1999. Aerial Survey: User's Manual. Electronic Edition. Idaho Department of Fish & Game, Boise, Idaho, USA.
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White, G. C. 1996. NOREMARK: population estimation from mark-resighting surveys. Wildlife Society Bulletin. 24:50
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APPENDIX A Slocan Valley Elk Study ­ Aerial Survey. Data collected from each group of elk observed.
Date Flown 21-Feb-04 22-Feb-04 22-Feb-04 21-Feb-04 21-Feb-04 21-Feb-04 21-Feb-04 21-Feb-04 21-Feb-04 21-Feb-04 22-Feb-04 22-Feb-04 23-Feb-04 23-Feb-04 23-Feb-04 25-Feb-04 25-Feb-04 22-Feb-04 22-Feb-04 22-Feb-04 22-Feb-04 22-Feb-04 22-Feb-04 22-Feb-04 25-Feb-04 25-Feb-04 25-Feb-04 25-Feb-04
Subunit # 4-08-02 4-08-07 4-08-07 4-08-08 4-08-08 4-08-08 4-08-08 4-08-08 4-08-08 4-08-08 4-15-12 4-15-12 4-15-14 4-15-14 4-15-14 4-16-07 4-16-07 4-16-13 4-16-13 4-16-13 4-16-13 4-16-13 4-16-13 4-16-13 4-16-14 4-16-14 4-16-14 4-16-14
Strat um 1=L, 3=H 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2
Total Group Count 1 2 1 1 16 1 2 2 2 1 4 2 12 5 11 1 1 1 7 9 4 1 2 6 1 1 2 1
Adults 1 2 1 1 13 1 2 2 2 1 3 2 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 5 1 1 2 1
Cows 0 0 1 0 9 0 0 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 5 1 0 0 0
Calves 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
Spike 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2-4 point 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
5 point 0 1 0 0 2 0 1 0 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
6+ point 1 1 0 1 2 1 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 1
Unclassified 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 3 11 0 0 1 5 9 4 0 2 0 0 0 0 0
Activity 1 1 2 2 2 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1
Snow Cover 90 80 95 80 100 100 100 100 100 100 40 90 90 90 90 60 100 5 10 10 10 20 40 100 0 80 80 100
Veg Cover 80 40 80 70 60 50 20 70 10 20 40 40 50 50 70 50 90 10 30 30 20 30 20 80 60 30 50 30
Veg Class 5 4 5 5 4 4 5 5 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 3 3 3 3 4 3 5 5 5 5 5
Easting (UTM Zone 11) 465500 456200 454950 462150 462050 462400 461900 461050 458400 459150 448200 447350 450050 450400 450300 447500 451750 452550 452650 452650 452800 452700 452550 455500 455400 460000 458500 459100
Northing (UTM Zone 11) 5475900 5462900 5462900 5472000 5471600 5471050 5469800 5470000 5465000 5465550 5466700 5467800 5466850 5467000 5467300 5492550 5491400 5466750 5466250 5467050 5467000 5466000 5467300 5473850 5466200 5474450 5470800 5474350
Elevation (m) 900 900 710 700 760 880 900 600 800 1060 860 1050 700 630 680 900 1000 900 900 940 880 1050 1020 1080 1050 700 500 800
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Date Flown 25-Feb-04 25-Feb-04 25-Feb-04 23-Feb-04 23-Feb-04 23-Feb-04 23-Feb-04 23-Feb-04 23-Feb-04 23-Feb-04 23-Feb-04 23-Feb-04 23-Feb-04 23-Feb-04 23-Feb-04 23-Feb-04 23-Feb-04 23-Feb-04 23-Feb-04 22-Feb-04 22-Feb-04 25-Feb-04 25-Feb-04 25-Feb-04 25-Feb-04 25-Feb-04 25-Feb-04 25-Feb-04 25-Feb-04 25-Feb-04 25-Feb-04 25-Feb-04 Total Mean
Subunit # 4-16-14 4-16-14 4-16-14 4-16-15 4-16-15 4-16-15 4-16-15 4-16-15 4-16-15 4-16-15 4-16-15 4-16-15 4-16-15 4-16-15 4-16-15 4-16-15 4-16-15 4-16-15 4-16-15 4-17-14 4-17-14 4-17-15 4-17-15 4-17-15 4-17-15 4-17-15 4-17-15 4-18-06 4-18-06 4-18-06 4-18-06 4-18-06
Strat um 1=L, 3=H 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Total Group Count 3 1 5 1 1 4 2 4 1 7 1 2 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 5 4 7 2 3 1 2 1 2 1 4 15 1 188 3.1
Adults 2 1 4 1 1 3 1 3 1 0 1 2 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 5 3 6 2 3 1 2 1 2 0 3 0 0 100 1.7
Cows 2 0 3 0 0 3 1 3 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 5 1 6 1 2 0 2 0 2 0 3 0 0 60 1.0
Calves 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 11 0.2
Spike 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 2 1 12 0.2
2-4 point 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 0.1
5 point 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 0.2
6+ point 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 25 0.4
Unclassified 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 0 65 1.1
Activity 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1
Snow Cover 100 100 100 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 90 90 90 100 100 100 100 100 100 50 95 50 50 50 60 60 80 50 80 80 100 100 76.6
Veg Cover 50 60 60 30 20 30 20 20 20 30 30 70 90 20 20 50 50 50 60 30 50 10 20 20 50 40 65 50 50 60 30 70 43.4
Veg Class 5 5 5 5 3 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4.7
Easting (UTM Zone 11) 460900 457850 457250 454600 454000 455600 455800 455950 454000 457400 455800 454300 456250 455900 455800 457000 456750 453600 452550 459200 459450 454800 454650 454400 457200 457500 456650 462300 461400 461800 463200 461800
Northing (UTM Zone 11) 5475400 5468400 5468300 5477250 5476050 5477050 5477350 5477500 5475000 5478750 5476050 5474300 5483200 5478350 5477800 5480000 5479400 5485000 5487500 5481300 5482000 5486850 5487000 5487400 5485300 5484950 5486200 5479400 5479100 5479200 5480150 5480000
Elevation (m) 900 1040 1140 1020 920 920 900 750 750 750 700 730 670 700 620 630 700 520 520 1100 760 1100 1070 1050 900 850 850 800 780 740 900 950
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APPENDIX B
Slocan Valley Elk Study ­ Aerial Survey. Output from sightability model.
Aerial Survey 2002, Version 1.00 Beta 6.1.5 (16-Aug-2002)
Friday, May 14, 2004 04:11 PM
Model: Elk, Hiller 12-E, Idaho (with snow)
[Files] Title = H:\Elk Project\Sightability Model\Aerial Survey-May5-04\Slocan Elk #6.ttl Summary = H:\Elk Project\Sightability Model\Aerial Survey-May5-04\Slocan Elk #6.sum
........................................................................ .......
Slocan Elk #6
Section 1: Summary of Raw Counts ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Units
--------- Number of Each Class Counted ---------
Stratum Sampled Total Cows Bulls BABull Calves Spikes Raghrn AdBull
Unclas
------- ------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
------
1
12
188
60
52
40
11
12
0
40
65
------- ------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
------
Total
12
188
60
52
40
11
12
0
40
65
======= ======= ====== ====== ====== ====== ====== ====== ====== ======
======
Section 2: Summary of Raw Counts for Perfect Visibility Model -----------------------------------------------------------------------------This table projects the number of animals that would have been counted if every unit had been flown and visibility had been perfect (no animals obscured by vegetation, etc.)
No of Units
--------- Number of Each Class Counted ---------
Strat Popn Sample Total Cows Bulls BABull Calves Spikes Raghrn AdBull
Unclas
----- ---- ------ ----- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
------
1 12 12 188
60
52
40
11
12
0
40
65
13
Slocan Valley Elk Study ­ Aerial Survey Report
March 2005
----- ---- ------ ----- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
------
Total 12 12 188
60
52
40
11
12
0
40
65
===== ==== ====== ===== ====== ====== ====== ====== ====== ====== ======
======
Section 3: Estimates for Total Number ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total
Number of Units
---------- Variance ----------- Bound
Stratum Popn. Sample Estimate Sampling Sightability
Model
90%
------- ------ ------ -------- -------- ------------ --------- -------
1
12
12
362
0
1526
50
65
------- ------ ------ -------- -------- ------------ --------- -------
Total
12
12
362
0
1526
50
65
======= ====== ====== ======== ======== ============ ========= =======
Cows
Number of Units
---------- Variance ----------- Bound
Stratum Popn. Sample Estimate Sampling Sightability
Model
90%
------- ------ ------ -------- -------- ------------ --------- -------
1
12
12
144
0
791
36
47
------- ------ ------ -------- -------- ------------ --------- -------
Total
12
12
144
0
791
36
47
======= ====== ====== ======== ======== ============ ========= =======
Bulls
Number of Units
---------- Variance ----------- Bound
Stratum Popn. Sample Estimate Sampling Sightability
Model
90%
------- ------ ------ -------- -------- ------------ --------- -------
1
12
12
115
0
282
8
28
------- ------ ------ -------- -------- ------------ --------- -------
Total
12
12
115
0
282
8
28
======= ====== ====== ======== ======== ============ ========= =======
Branched-antlered bulls
Number of Units
---------- Variance ----------- Bound
Stratum Popn. Sample Estimate Sampling Sightability
Model
90%
------- ------ ------ -------- -------- ------------ --------- -------
1
12
12
94
0
242
7
26
------- ------ ------ -------- -------- ------------ --------- -------
Total
12
12
94
0
242
7
26
======= ====== ====== ======== ======== ============ ========= =======
Calves
Number of Units
---------- Variance ----------- Bound
Stratum Popn. Sample Estimate Sampling Sightability
Model
90%
------- ------ ------ -------- -------- ------------ --------- -------
1
12
12
18
0
19
0
7
14
Slocan Valley Elk Study ­ Aerial Survey Report
March 2005
------- ------ ------ -------- -------- ------------ --------- -------
Total
12
12
18
0
19
0
7
======= ====== ====== ======== ======== ============ ========= =======
Spikes
Number of Units
---------- Variance ----------- Bound
Stratum Popn. Sample Estimate Sampling Sightability
Model
90%
------- ------ ------ -------- -------- ------------ --------- -------
1
12
12
22
0
25
0
8
------- ------ ------ -------- -------- ------------ --------- -------
Total
12
12
22
0
25
0
8
======= ====== ====== ======== ======== ============ ========= =======
Raghorns
Number of Units
---------- Variance ----------- Bound
Stratum Popn. Sample Estimate Sampling Sightability
Model
90%
------- ------ ------ -------- -------- ------------ --------- -------
1
12
12
0
0
0
0
0
------- ------ ------ -------- -------- ------------ --------- -------
Total
12
12
0
0
0
0
0
======= ====== ====== ======== ======== ============ ========= =======
Adult bulls
Number of Units
---------- Variance ----------- Bound
Stratum Popn. Sample Estimate Sampling Sightability
Model
90%
------- ------ ------ -------- -------- ------------ --------- -------
1
12
12
94
0
242
7
26
------- ------ ------ -------- -------- ------------ --------- -------
Total
12
12
94
0
242
7
26
======= ====== ====== ======== ======== ============ ========= =======
Unclassified
Number of Units
---------- Variance ----------- Bound
Stratum Popn. Sample Estimate Sampling Sightability
Model
90%
------- ------ ------ -------- -------- ------------ --------- -------
1
12
12
85
0
200
4
24
------- ------ ------ -------- -------- ------------ --------- -------
Total
12
12
85
0
200
4
23
======= ====== ====== ======== ======== ============ ========= =======
Section 4: Estimates for Proportions ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cows
Number of Units
---------- Variance ----------- Bound
Stratum Popn. Sample Estimate Sampling Sightability
Model
90%
------- ------ ------ -------- -------- ------------ --------- -------
1
12
12 0.39909 0.00000
0.00247 0.00033 0.08705
------- ------ ------ -------- -------- ------------ --------- -------
Total
12
12 0.39900 0.00000
0.00247 0.00033 0.08704
======= ====== ====== ======== ======== ============ ========= =======
15
Slocan Valley Elk Study ­ Aerial Survey Report
March 2005
Bulls
Number of Units
---------- Variance ----------- Bound
Stratum Popn. Sample Estimate Sampling Sightability
Model
90%
------- ------ ------ -------- -------- ------------ --------- -------
1
12
12 0.31795 0.00000
0.00175 0.00010 0.07066
------- ------ ------ -------- -------- ------------ --------- -------
Total
12
12 0.31788 0.00000
0.00175 0.00010 0.07065
======= ====== ====== ======== ======== ============ ========= =======
Branched-antlered bulls
Number of Units
---------- Variance ----------- Bound
Stratum Popn. Sample Estimate Sampling Sightability
Model
90%
------- ------ ------ -------- -------- ------------ --------- -------
1
12
12 0.25836 0.00000
0.00153 0.00008 0.06595
------- ------ ------ -------- -------- ------------ --------- -------
Total
12
12 0.25831 0.00000
0.00153 0.00008 0.06594
======= ====== ====== ======== ======== ============ ========= =======
Calves
Number of Units
---------- Variance ----------- Bound
Stratum Popn. Sample Estimate Sampling Sightability
Model
90%
------- ------ ------ -------- -------- ------------ --------- -------
1
12
12 0.04927 0.00000
0.00010 0.00000 0.01673
------- ------ ------ -------- -------- ------------ --------- -------
Total
12
12 0.04926 0.00000
0.00010 0.00000 0.01672
======= ====== ====== ======== ======== ============ ========= =======
Spikes
Number of Units
---------- Variance ----------- Bound
Stratum Popn. Sample Estimate Sampling Sightability
Model
90%
------- ------ ------ -------- -------- ------------ --------- -------
1
12
12 0.05958 0.00000
0.00019 0.00000 0.02270
------- ------ ------ -------- -------- ------------ --------- -------
Total
12
12 0.05957 0.00000
0.00019 0.00000 0.02270
======= ====== ====== ======== ======== ============ ========= =======
Raghorns
Number of Units
---------- Variance ----------- Bound
Stratum Popn. Sample Estimate Sampling Sightability
Model
90%
------- ------ ------ -------- -------- ------------ --------- -------
1
12
12 0.00000 0.00000
0.00000 0.00000 0.00000
------- ------ ------ -------- -------- ------------ --------- -------
Total
12
12 0.00000 0.00000
0.00000 0.00000 0.00000
======= ====== ====== ======== ======== ============ ========= =======
Adult bulls
Number of Units
---------- Variance ----------- Bound
Stratum Popn. Sample Estimate Sampling Sightability
Model
90%
------- ------ ------ -------- -------- ------------ --------- -------
1
12
12 0.25836 0.00000
0.00153 0.00008 0.06595
16
Slocan Valley Elk Study ­ Aerial Survey Report
March 2005
------- ------ ------ -------- -------- ------------ --------- -------
Total
12
12 0.25831 0.00000
0.00153 0.00008 0.06594
======= ====== ====== ======== ======== ============ ========= =======
Unclassified
Number of Units
---------- Variance ----------- Bound
Stratum Popn. Sample Estimate Sampling Sightability
Model
90%
------- ------ ------ -------- -------- ------------ --------- -------
1
12
12 0.23369 0.00000
0.00139 0.00005 0.06252
------- ------ ------ -------- -------- ------------ --------- -------
Total
12
12 0.23364 0.00000
0.00139 0.00005 0.06250
======= ====== ====== ======== ======== ============ ========= =======
Section 5: Estimates for Ratios ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bulls per 100 Cows
Number of Units
---------- Variance ----------- Bound
Stratum Popn. Sample Estimate Sampling Sightability
Model
90%
------- ------ ------ -------- -------- ------------ --------- -------
1
12
12
79.7
0.0
375.9
14.6 32.5
------- ------ ------ -------- -------- ------------ --------- -------
Total
12
12
79.9
0.0
378.2
14.7 32.6
======= ====== ====== ======== ======== ============ ========= =======
Calves per 100 Cows
Number of Units
---------- Variance ----------- Bound
Stratum Popn. Sample Estimate Sampling Sightability
Model
90%
------- ------ ------ -------- -------- ------------ --------- -------
1
12
12
12.3
0.0
14.7
0.4
6.4
------- ------ ------ -------- -------- ------------ --------- -------
Total
12
12
12.4
0.0
14.8
0.4
6.4
======= ====== ====== ======== ======== ============ ========= =======
Spikes per 100 Cows
Number of Units
---------- Variance ----------- Bound
Stratum Popn. Sample Estimate Sampling Sightability
Model
90%
------- ------ ------ -------- -------- ------------ --------- -------
1
12
12
14.9
0.0
18.8
0.6
7.2
------- ------ ------ -------- -------- ------------ --------- -------
Total
12
12
15.0
0.0
18.9
0.6
7.3
======= ====== ====== ======== ======== ============ ========= =======
Spikes per 100 Bulls
Number of Units
---------- Variance ----------- Bound
Stratum Popn. Sample Estimate Sampling Sightability
Model
90%
------- ------ ------ -------- -------- ------------ --------- -------
1
12
12
18.7
0.0
17.0
0.5
6.9
------- ------ ------ -------- -------- ------------ --------- -------
Total
12
12
18.8
0.0
17.0
0.5
6.9
======= ====== ====== ======== ======== ============ ========= =======
17
Slocan Valley Elk Study ­ Aerial Survey Report
March 2005
Raghorns per 100 Bulls
Number of Units
---------- Variance ----------- Bound
Stratum Popn. Sample Estimate Sampling Sightability
Model
90%
------- ------ ------ -------- -------- ------------ --------- -------
1
12
12
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
------- ------ ------ -------- -------- ------------ --------- -------
Total
12
12
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
======= ====== ====== ======== ======== ============ ========= =======
Adult bulls per 100 Bulls
Number of Units
---------- Variance ----------- Bound
Stratum Popn. Sample Estimate Sampling Sightability
Model
90%
------- ------ ------ -------- -------- ------------ --------- -------
1
12
12
81.3
0.0
0.0
9.4
5.0
------- ------ ------ -------- -------- ------------ --------- -------
Total
12
12
81.3
0.0
0.0
9.4
5.0
======= ====== ====== ======== ======== ============ ========= =======
Branched-antlered bulls per 100 Bulls
Number of Units
---------- Variance ----------- Bound
Stratum Popn. Sample Estimate Sampling Sightability
Model
90%
------- ------ ------ -------- -------- ------------ --------- -------
1
12
12
81.3
0.0
17.0
9.4
8.4
------- ------ ------ -------- -------- ------------ --------- -------
Total
12
12
81.3
0.0
17.0
9.4
8.4
======= ====== ====== ======== ======== ============ ========= =======
Spikes per 100 Branched-antlered bulls
Number of Units
---------- Variance ----------- Bound
Stratum Popn. Sample Estimate Sampling Sightability
Model
90%
------- ------ ------ -------- -------- ------------ --------- -------
1
12
12
23.1
1.1
38.9
0.9 10.5
------- ------ ------ -------- -------- ------------ --------- -------
Total
12
12
22.9
1.1
38.5
0.9 10.5
======= ====== ====== ======== ======== ============ ========= =======
Section 6: Summary Statistics ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Percent correction from perfect visibility model
Units
Stratum Sampled Total Cows Bulls BABull Calves Spikes Raghrn AdBull
Unclas
------- ------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
------
1
12
92.5 140.7 121.3 133.8 62.1 79.7 0.0 133.8
30.1
------- ------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
------
18
Slocan Valley Elk Study ­ Aerial Survey Report
March 2005
Total
12
92.6 140.0 121.2 135.0 63.6 83.3 0.0 135.0
30.8
======= ======= ====== ====== ====== ====== ====== ====== ====== ======
======
[Total variances (i.e., standard error squared) are in parenthesis]
Total estimates...
362 ( 1576) Total
144 (
827) Cows
115 (
290) Bulls
94 (
249) Branched-antlered bulls
18 (
19) Calves
22 (
25) Spikes
0(
0) Raghorns
94 (
249) Adult bulls
85 (
204) Unclassified
Proportions... 0.3990 (0.002800) Cows 0.3179 (0.001845) Bulls 0.2583 (0.001607) Branched-antlered bulls 0.0493 (0.000103) Calves 0.0596 (0.000190) Spikes 0.0000 (0.000000) Raghorns 0.2583 (0.001607) Adult bulls 0.2336 (0.001444) Unclassified
Ratios...
80 (
393) Bulls per 100 Cows
12 (
15) Calves per 100 Cows
15 (
19) Spikes per 100 Cows
19 (
17) Spikes per 100 Bulls
0(
0) Raghorns per 100 Bulls
81 (
9) Adult bulls per 100 Bulls
81 (
26) Branched-antlered bulls per 100 Bulls
23 (
40) Spikes per 100 Branched-antlered bulls
========================================================================
=======
19

File: slocan-valley-elk-study-aerial-survey-report.pdf
Title: Slocan Valley Elk Study - Aerial Survey Report
Author: Leo DeGroot
Published: Thu Feb 28 13:22:33 2008
Pages: 22
File size: 0.42 Mb


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