The socioeconomic situation of immigrants in Spain: Progress or cohort effects

Tags: Latin America, Eastern Europe, Spain, labour market, Primary education, OECD countries, immigrants, pre-1990, logistic regression models, labour market situation, Odds ratios, unemployment, SOCIOECONOMIC SITUATION, Africa, type de contrat, les, Europe, Immigration, market situation, Universidad de Valencia, BORJAS, logistic regression, arrival, mercado de trabajo, Immigration in Spain, Journal of Labor Economics
Content: THE SOCIOECONOMIC SITUATION OF IMMIGRANTS IN SPAIN PROGRESS OR COHORT EFFECTS? Joaquнn Recaсo Marta Roig 276
THE SOCIOECONOMIC SITUATION OF IMMIGRANTS IN SPAIN PROGRESS OR COHORT EFFECTS? Joaquнn Recaсo Marta Roig 276 Treball presentat a la 2nd Conference of the EAPS Working Group on international migration in Europe "International migration in Europe: new trends, new methods of analysis" Roma, 25-27 de Novembre de 2004. Centre d'Estudis Demogrаfics 2005
RECAСO, Joaquнn; ROIG, Marta.- La situaciу socioeconтmica dels immigrants a Espanya. Efecte de progrйs o de cohort? Resum.- L'objectiu d'aquest article es estudiar la situaciу socioeconтmica dels immigrants de diferents cohorts d'arribada i examinar la influиncia de varis factors, entre ells, el temps de residиncia i la regiу o paнs d'origen sobre la seva situaciу en el mercat de treball a Espanya. L'anаlisi es base en microdades del cens espanyol de 2001 que contenen informaciу extensa sobre les caracterнstiques socioeconтmiques i demogrаfiques dels immigrants. Com a conseqьиncia de les limitacions d'informacions de dades transversals per l'estudi de processos que tenen lloc en el temps, com ara la integraciу, una part de l'article analitza els problemes metodolтgics derivats d'aquestes limitacions. Comencem discutint els pros i els contres d'utilitzar les dades de nomйs un cens i l'abast dels nostres resultats. Mйs tard realitzem una regressiу logнstica per mesurar la influиncia del temps de residиncia i la regiу d'origen, entre altres, en la situaciу del mercat de treball de diferents grups de treballadors immigrants, mentre controlem mitjanзant altres caracterнstiques socioeconтmiques i demogrаfiques. Examinem tres aspectes principals de la situaciу del mercat de treball: l'ocupaciу, les caracterнstiques del treball i el tipus de contracte. Els resultats preliminars suggereixen que, entre altres, el temps de residиncia disminueix sovint les desigualtats de treball en una ocupaciу que requereix poca qualificaciу. Malgrat tot, encara que les conclusions sobre la integraciу dels immigrants s'han inferit sovint d'un sol conjunt de dades transversals, aquesta informaciу no pot identificar els efectes de cohort i temps de residиncia separadament. L'article posa l'accent, finalment, en el paper dels factors no observats que influeixen en la qualitat de l'ocupaciу de les diferents cohorts d'arribada. Paraules claus.- Migraciу internacional, Assimilaciу, Efecte de cohort, Espanya, Educaciу, Poblaciу estrangera RECAСO, Joaquнn; ROIG, Marta.- La situaciуn socioeconуmica de los inmigrantes en Espaсa. їEfecto de progreso o de cohorte? Resumen.- El propуsito de este artнculo es estudiar la situaciуn socioeconуmica de los inmigrantes de diferentes cohortes de llegada y examinar la influencia de varios factores, entre ellos la duraciуn de residencia y la regiуn o paнs de origen sobre su situaciуn en el mercado de trabajo en Espaсa. El anбlisis se basa en microdatos del censo espaсol de 2001 que contiene informaciуn extensa sobre las caracterнsticas socioeconуmicas y demogrбficas de los inmigrantes. Dada las limitaciones de informaciуn de datos transversales para el estudio de procesos que tienen lugar en el tiempo, como la integraciуn, una parte del artнculo se consagra a analizar los problemas metodolуgicos derivados de esas limitaciones. Empezamos discutiendo los pros y los contras de usar los datos de un solo censo y el alcance de nuestros resultados. Mбs tarde realizamos una regresiуn logнstica para medir la influencia de duraciуn de residencia y regiуn de origen, entre otros, en la situaciуn del mercado de trabajo de diferentes grupos de trabajadores inmigrantes, mientras controlamos por otras caracterнsticas socioeconуmicas y demogrбficas. Examinamos tres aspectos principales de la situaciуn del mercado de trabajo: la ocupaciуn, las caracterнsticas del empleo y el tipo de contrato.
Los resultados preliminares sugieren que, entre otros, la duraciуn de residencia disminuye a menudo las desigualdades de trabajar en una ocupaciуn que requiere escasa cualificaciуn. Sin embargo, aunque las conclusiones sobre la integraciуn de los inmigrantes se han inferido a menudo de un solo conjunto de datos transversales, este tipo de informaciуn no puede identificar los efectos de cohorte y duraciуn de residencia separadamente. El artнculo enfatiza finalmente el papel de los factores no observados que influyen en la calidad de la ocupaciуn de las diferentes cohortes de llegada. Palabras clave.- Migraciуn internacional, Asimilaciуn, Efecto de cohorte, Espaсa, Educaciуn, Poblaciуn extranjera. RECAСO, Joaquнn; ROIG, Marta.- The socioeconomic situation of immigrants in Spain: Progress or cohort effects? Abstract.- The purpose of this paper is to study the socioeconomic situation of immigrants from successive arrival cohorts and to examine the influence of a number of factors, including length of residence and region or country of origin, on their Labour Market situation. The analysis is based on microdata from the 2001 Spanish census, which contains extensive information on the socioeconomic and demographic characteristics of immigrants. Given the limitations of cross-section information for the study of processes that take place over time, including integration, part of the paper is devoted to analyzing methodological issues. Hence we start by discussing the pros and cons of using data from one single census and the scope of our results. We then conduct logistic regression analyses to measure the influence of length of residence and origin, among others, on the labour market situation of different groups of migrants, while controlling for other socio-economic and demographic characteristics. We examine three main aspects of the labour market situation: occupation, employment situation and type of contract. preliminary results suggest that, among other, length of residence often decreases the odds of working in a job that requires low skills. However, even though conclusions about immigrants' integration have often been inferred from a single cross-section data set, cross-section information cannot fully identify time and cohort effects separately. The paper emphasizes the role of non-observable factors that influence cohort quality and labour supply. Keywords.- International migration, assimilation, cohort effects, Spain, Education, foreign population. RECAСO, Joaquнn; ROIG, Marta.- La situation socio-йconomique des immigrйs en Espagne. Rйsumй.- L'objectif de cet article est d'йtudier la situation socio-йconomique des immigrйs de diffйrentes cohortes d'arrivйe et d'examiner l'influence de divers facteurs, parmi lesquels le temps de rйsidence et la rйgion ou le pays d'origine, sur leur situation dans le marchй du travail en Espagne. L'analyse se dйveloppe а partir des microdonnйes du recensement espagnol de 2001 qui contiennent une vaste information sur les caractйristiques socio-йconomiques et dйmographiques des immigrйs. Йtant donnйes les limitations d'information des donnйes transversales pour l'йtude de processus qui
s'inscrivent dans la durйe, comme par exemple l'intйgration, une partie de l'article analyse les problиmes mйthodologiques dйrivйs de ces limitations. Nous dйbutons par une discussion sur les avantages et les inconvйnients d'utiliser un seul recensement et la portйe de nos rйsultats. Puis, nous rйalisons une rйgression logistique pour mesurer l'influence du temps de rйsidence et de la rйgion d'origine, entre autres, sur la situation dans le marchй du travail de diffйrents groupes de travailleurs immigrйs, tandis que nous contrфlons les rйsultats moyennant d'autres caractйristiques socio-йconomiques et dйmographiques. Nous examinons trois aspects principaux de la situation du marchй du travail : la population active occupйe, les caractйristiques du travail et le type de contrat. Les rйsultats prйliminaires suggиrent entre autre que le temps de rйsidence diminue souvent les inйgalitйs de travail pour un emploi qui requiиre peu de qualification. Malgrй cela, bien que les conclusions sur l'intйgration des immigrйs aient souvent йtй infйrйes а partir d'un seul ensemble de donnйes transversales, cette information ne peut pas identifier les effets de cohorte et temps de rйsidence sйparйment. L'article met l'accent, finalement, sur le rфle des facteurs non observйs qui influencent la qualitй de l'emploi des diffйrentes cohortes d'arrivйe. Mots clйs.- Migrations internationales, Effets de cohorte, Espagne, Йducation, Population йtrangиre.
THE SOCIOECONOMIC SITUATION OF IMMIGRANTS IN SPAIN: PROGRESS OR COHORT EFFECTS?1 Joaquнn Recaсo Marta Roig 1.- Introduction Spain, a country of emigration until the 1970s, has become a receiving country in the last twenty years. This Southern European country hosted more than 4 million foreigners in January 2003, up from less than 600,000 in 1981 and over 1.5 million in 1996 (table 1). Immigration has therefore experienced a rapid and accelerated growth. With an inflow of 672,000 foreigners in 2003, Spain is currently the main receiving country of Europe (OECD, 2004). While the socioeconomic dynamics of immigrants have been studied in the context of countries with a longer tradition of immigration, little is known about the immigrants' fate in the new immigration countries of Southern Europe, at this early stage. Questions related to the occupational paths of the immigrant population in Spain­namely: Does the socioeconomic situation of immigrants improve over time? How does the labor market situation of immigrants from different arrival cohorts and from diverse regions differ?have not been explored. Although it is too early to study intergenerational paths, the socioeconomic dynamics of the first generation can now be examined for a significant number of immigrants of diverse nationalities. The purpose of this paper is to study the socioeconomic situation of immigrants from successive arrival cohorts and to examine the influence of a number of factors, including length of residence and region of origin, on their labour market situation. Our analysis is based on information from the 2001 Spanish census. We start the paper by comparing selected socioeconomic and demographic characteristics of immigrants by duration of 1 This study is part of the Project Migration processes, settlement and family structures: a sociodemographic analysis, funded by the science and technology Ministry of Spain, Programa Nacional de Promocion General del Conocimiento. Plan Nacional I+D+I2000-2003. BSO2001-1233. PAPERS DE DEMOGRAFIA 276: 1-22 (2005) 1
residence (period-of-arrival cohorts) in 2001. We then conduct logistic regression analyses to measure the influence of origin and length of residence, among other, on the labour market situation of individuals, while controlling for other socio-demographic characteristics. We analyze three aspects of the labour market situation of immigrants in 2001: occupation, type of contract and employment situation. While the 2001 census contains extensive information on the socioeconomic and demographic characteristics of immigrants and thus provides a unique opportunity to study their situation, the use of cross-section information for the study of processes that take place over time, including integration, has limitations. Part of the paper is devoted to discussing such limitations. 2.- Immigration trends in Spain The recent rise in immigration has brought about changes in the composition of the migrant stock. Namely, while over 60% of all immigrants originated in the European Union and other industrialized countries in 1981, less than 30 per cent of all foreign-born individuals were born in another industrialized country in 2001; 38 per cent were born in Latin America and 19 per cent were born in Africa (table 2). While almost half of all EU immigrants arrived before 1990, about 80 per cent of all Latin Americans and Eastern Europeans, and some 70 per cent of all Africans arrived after 1990. The proportion of individuals working in unskilled, manual positions is significantly higher for foreign-born individuals born in Africa, Latin America, Asia and Eastern Europe than for those born in Spain and in other industrialized countries (table 3). Those arrived after 1990 are in a particularly disadvantaged position: the proportion in unskilled jobs, for instance, is twice as high for recently arrived Northern Africans and Latin Americans than for those arrived before 1990. In addition, the foreign-born, and especially those born in Eastern Europe, Africa and Latin America and arrived after 1990, are employed more often under temporary contracts. These groups also differ in many characteristics that are associated with occupation and labour market situation. Namely, while individuals born in other industrialized countries are slightly older than the Spanish population, those born in Northern Africa are almost 5 years younger than natives, on average and those born in Latin America are more than 7 years younger. 2
Recently arrived Africans and Eastern Europeans are also more likely to be employed in agriculture and related activities. Differences in education, however, do not systematically go in the direction expected: while Northern Africans are significantly less educated than natives, on average, the proportion of Latin Americans or Eastern Europeans with low levels of education is similar to that of natives'. Yet the proportion uneducated is higher among recent arrivals across all groups but individuals born in other industrialized countries. With the important exception of education, most of the differences observed -in duration of residence, age and employment sector- may be associated with labour market disadvantages among immigrants from developing countries compared to natives and immigrants from other developed countries. Therefore, a multivariate analysis is necessary to explore whether any disadvantages in the labour market arise from the origin of foreign-born individuals and whether duration of residence plays a role in their current situation, net of the effect of other demographic and socioeconomic characteristics. 3.- Data and methods The statistical analysis presented in this paper is based on preliminary micro-data provided by the National Statistical Institute (INE)2. The contingency tables generated by INE for this study allowed for the use of a limited number of variables (8). Given this limitations, we had to exclude some variables that we had initially considered relevant in our model (namely, those related to residence). The analysis focuses on two subgroups: first, employed individuals living in households over 16 years of age who lived in Spain on November 1 2001; the analysis of skills and type of contract focuses on this subgroup. Second, the active population over 16, for the analysis of unemployment. The labour market characteristics of immigrants can now be observed, for the first time, using census information. The variables selected as representative of occupational differences among groups are: holding an unskilled, manual job, working under a temporary contract and being 2 Given that individual-level results from the 2001 Census became available later than expected (in November 2004), this paper presents only preliminary results of the analysis. 3
unemployed. Unskilled, manual jobs are those under Major Group 9 of the International Standard Classification of Occupations (ISCO-88)3 and include elementary occupations in sales and services (street vendors, domestic helpers, shoe cleaning, etc.), agricultural and related labourers and labourers in construction, manufacturing and other. Because our dependent variables measure a dichotomous outcome ­whether the individual had an unskilled, manual occupation in 2001, or belonged to another occupational group; whether the individual worked under a temporary contract, or else was employed under a long-term contract or worked for himself; whether the individual was unemployed or notwe have used logistic regression. The results shown in the following section are presented as odds ratios ­the exponential of the logistic regression coefficients. The odds ratios or relative risks represent the multiplicative change in the odds of working in an unskilled job (or holding a temporary contract, or being unemployed) for those individuals in a specific category with respect to those in the omitted category. The variables included in the model as independent variables are: origin, period of arrival (for those born abroad), age, sex, education, citizenship (foreign, national) and labour market sector. The effect of origin is measured by region of birth. In some models, we have created a variable that combines region of birth and duration of residence; it distinguishes 2 groups by region of birth: those arrived before 1990 and those arrived in 1990 or after4. Our three main models compare foreign-born groups to natives (that is, individuals born in Spain). We have also conducted analyses by region of origin in order to examine whether the influence of certain variables (education, period of arrival and other) remains constant across groups. One of the limitations of the model is that, at present, we lack the information needed to include variables related to residence (region, type of residence, in our model). 3 See http://laborsta.ilo.org. 4 Such combination was statistically required for a comparison of immigrants with the Spanish population. Aware of the limitations of the combined variable, however, we have tested other models that exclude the Spanish population. 4
4.- Results As shown in table 4, occupational differences among groups persist once the effect of selected demographic and socioeconomic variables is accounted for. That is, the odds of holding a manual, unskilled position are significantly higher for individuals from Africa, Latin America, and Eastern Europe, in particular, than for individuals born in Spain and in other industrialized countries. Even though these findings apply to immigrants from these regions regardless of duration of residence, the odds of holding such positions are lower for individuals that arrived before 1990 than for those who arrived during the 1990s across all three groups. Namely, Latin Americans arrived before 1990 have 16% more chances of holding an unskilled job than individuals born in Spain, while the odds are almost twice as high for those arrived recently if compared to Spaniards. In contrast, recently-arrived individuals from OECD countries have lower odds of being unskilled than those arrived before 1990 and almost half the odds of Spaniards. The model also suggests that citizenship has a strong net effect on occupation: the odds of holding an unskilled job are more than 50% higher for foreigners. Additional models by group, shown in table 5, indicate that the effect of citizenship holds for all origins, and is especially strong among those born in Eastern Europe and Latin America. Indeed, the occupational structure of Spanish citizens born abroad is closer to that of natives than to that of other foreign-born individuals, even when the effect of duration of residence and origin are accounted for5. As for the rest of variables included in the model, there is a clear trend away from unskilled jobs among the youngest cohorts (those born after 1970, that is, 30 years or younger in 2001). The possibility of strong upward inter-generational mobility among immigrants will be explored in another paper. Gender effects are highly significant. Additional models by group show that the relative disadvantage of females in the labour market is stronger among Latin Americans and Eastern Europeans than among those born in Spain; in contrast, Gender Differences in occupation are less pronounced among Africans than among Spaniards. As expected, education, employment status and labour market sector have a strong effect on occupation. However, the effect of education is 5 Models comparing all immigrant groups, but excluding natives, are not shown here. 5
stronger for individuals born in Spain and in other industrialized countries than for those born in other regions. That is, the odds of holding an unskilled position are higher for Eastern European, Latin American or African graduates, as compared to non-educated individuals born in the same regions, than for highly-educated Spaniards or individuals born in other industrialized countries. Similarly, the odds of being employed under a temporary contract are higher for individuals born in Africa, Latin America and Eastern Europe, particularly for those that arrived after 1990 (table 6). The effect of variables included in the model is comparable to that found in table 4. Finally, immigrants also have higher odds of being unemployed than Spaniards. However, duration of residence does not systematically play a positive role, in this case: among Africans and Asians, the odds of being unemployed are higher for the pre-1990 arrival cohorts than for recently arrived immigrants (table 7). In order to better examine insertion in the labour market, we focus on the chances of young individuals (19-35 years of age) being unemployed while looking for their first job. As shown in the two last columns of table 7, foreign-born individuals from developing regions have higher chances of being unemployed while looking for their first job. That is also the case for most of those arrived before 1990 ­that is, at ages 9 to 25. The relative odds of being unemployed are particularly high for young Latin American and Eastern European immigrants arrived after 1990. Young individuals born in other industrialized countries, in contrast, have lower chances of being unemployed before finding their first job in Spain, and so do young Eastern Europeans arrived before 1990. In sum, differences among immigrants of diverse origins and successive arrival cohorts persist, even when the effect of selected demographic and socioeconomic variables, including education, is accounted for. That is, inequalities are not only due to differences in Human Capital and other measurable socioeconomic traits. In order to substantiate whether such differences are due to the integration process, that would place earlier arrivals in a relatively better position, a longitudinal analysis of their occupational paths is necessary. The comparison of these results with those of the previous census, 6
conducted in 1991, will be the object of a second part of this study, which will also incorporate additional variables6.
Table 1.- Immigration in Spain, 1981-2003
in thousands
4500.0 4000.0 3500.0 3000.0 2500.0 2000.0 1500.0 1000.0 593.7 500.0 0.0 1981
846.0 1991
1729.4
4180.8 3380.0 2683.3
1996
1998 ye a r
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Clearly, immigrants from different arrival cohorts and natives may not be comparable even when differences in these observable characteristics are accounted for. Beyond different motivations, innate abilities and expectations by immigrants from different arrival cohorts, there may be issues related to immigrant status and social capital that cannot be measured with census information. More importantly, immigrants of different arrival cohorts faced different labour market opportunities upon arrival. Economic factors may have affected their settlement experiences and Social Networks and not all of these factors can be accounted for by way of two successive censuses. However, the finding that inequalities among individuals of different origins are not simply due to differences 6 Namely, variables to measure the impact of residence, family contexts and language skills. 7
in human capital or length of residence is, in itself, an necessary first step in the study of integration, and one that has significant political implications.
Table 2.- Immigrants in Spain by region of origin, 1981-2003
in thousands
1400.0
1200.0
1000.0
800.0
600.0
400.0
200.0
0.0 1981
1991
1996
1998
1999 ye a r
2000
2001
2002
2003
EU and other industrialized Sub-Saharan Africa
Latin America Eastern Europe
Northern Africa Asia
8
Table 3. ­ Main characteristics of natives and foreign-born individuals older than 16 in the labour force by region of origin, 2001
Total Pre-1990 Post-1990
% workers in unskilled, manual positions % under temporary contract % unemployed % Males Mean age % in agriculture % primary education or less % arrived before 1990 % foreign % workers in unskilled, manual positions % under temporary contract % unemployed % Males % in agriculture % primary education or less % foreign % workers in unskilled, manual positions % under temporary contract % unemployed % Males % in agriculture % primary education or less % foreign
Spain
Other
Sub-
industrialized Northern Saharan
countries
Africa Africa
Latin Eastern Asia and America Europe Oceania
11.2
9.3
36.0
35.7
31.4 35.3
23.9
32.1
35.5
60.4
59.9
52.5 65.3
44.9
14.0
15.6
17.9
18.7
16.8 16.8
13.7
62.0
57.7
77.9
74.6
50.6 61.2
66.1
40.3
41.0
34.9
32.3
32.7 31.1
35.6
6.2
3.4
20.2
13.7
6.8 14.2
4.7
22.4
13.4
51.7
44.5
21.0 25.1
32.8
N/a
73.5
46.0
40.9
36.0 20.6
48.9
0.1
43.8
76.4
83.1
74.2 96.6
78.1
9.8
22.9
34.3
42.3
14.8
16.8
56.3
73.0
3.6
8.4
14.3
39.0
28.6
51.7
25.2
16.6 24.6
19.6
44.0
38.5 52.2
35.9
15.7
14.6 14.9
12.6
69.4
52.6 62.4
66.1
6.9
3.2
8.7
2.9
34.2
15.7 24.6
25.2
62.8
43.3 89.0
60.3
7.9
47.2
39.0
74.5
17.8
18.9
61.6
82.1
2.9
30.3
11.0
62.6
85.7
97.4
43.0
39.7 38.1
28.0
70.1
59.5 68.5
52.6
20.7
18.0 17.3
14.7
78.2
49.5 60.9
66.1
18.4
8.8 15.6
6.4
51.6
24.1 25.2
40.0
97.2
91.7 98.6
95.1
9
Table 4. ­ Odds ratios from logistic regression of holding an unskilled position in the labour market
Variables Region of birth by period of arrival (Spain) Other OECD countries, pre-1990 arrival Other OECD countries, post-1990 arrival Latin America, pre-1990 arrival Latin America, post-1990 arrival Africa, pre-1990 arrival Africa, post-1990 arrival Eastern Europe, pre-1990 arrival Eastern Europe, post-1990 arrival Asia, pre-1990 arrival Asia, post-1990 arrival Sex (Male) Female Cohort (Before 1950) 1951-1960 1961-1970 1971-1980 After 1980 Education (No education) Primary education Secondary education University degree Citizenship (Spanish) Foreign Employment status (Long-term contract, work for others) Temporary contract, work for others Self-employed, no staff Self-employed with staff Labour market sector (Agriculture) Industry Construction Hotels and catering Services(1) Services(2)- personal and domestic Constant (not exp.)
Exp()
Signif 0.83 *** 0.60 *** 1.16 *** 1.96 *** 1.30 *** 1.82 *** 1.25 *** 1.75 *** 1.35 *** 1.34 *** 1.50 *** 1.04 *** 1.00 0.89 *** 1.07 *** 0.78 *** 0.36 *** 0.05 *** 1.53 *** 2.00 *** 0.17 *** 0.11 *** 0.12 *** 0.36 *** 0.21 *** 0.26 *** 1.50 *** 0.85 ***
R2 -2 log likelihood Chi2
0.296 9380129.68 2753389.05 (27df)
10
Table 5. ­ Odds ratios from logistic regression models of holding an unskilled position in the labour market, by region of origin, 2001
Sex (Male) Female Cohort (Before 1950) 1951-1960 1961-1970 1971-1980 After 1980 Period of arrival (Before 1980) 1981-1990 1991-1995 1996-2001 Education (No education) Primary education Secondary education University degree Citizenship (Spanish) Foreign Employment status (Long-term contract, work for others) Temporary contract, work for others Self-employed, no staff Self-employed with staff
Spain Exp() 1.51*** 1.04*** 1.00 0.89*** 1.09*** n/a n/a n/a 0.76*** 0.34*** 0.04*** 1.47*** 2.02*** 0.16*** 0.11***
Other OECD Exp()
Latin America Exp()
Sub-S. Africa Exp()
Maghreb Exp()
Eastern Europe Exp()
1.30***
1.68***
1.09***
1.24***
1.56***
1.04 0.98 0.96 1.20***
1.10*** 1.01 0.86*** 0.81***
1.15* 0.95 0.79*** 0.65***
1.01 1.00 0.93** 0.78***
1.12** 1.00 0.86*** 0.84*
0.94** 0.92** 0.87***
1.07*** 1.41*** 1.63***
1.56*** 1.71*** 1.81***
1.23*** 1.33*** 1.52***
0.86** 0.94 1.31***
0.70*** 0.32*** 0.06***
0.92*** 0.58*** 0.23***
0.81*** 0.47*** 0.19***
0.85*** 0.52*** 0.19***
0.80*** 0.60*** 0.34***
0.99
1.97***
1.91***
1.86***
2.20***
1.92*** 0.33*** 0.14***
1.58*** 0.31*** 0.11***
2.01*** 1.81*** 0.17***
2.11*** 0.99 0.17***
1.77*** 0.41*** 0.10*** (...cont.)
11
(Table 5, cont.)
Labour market sector (Agriculture) Industry Construction Hotels and catering Services(1) Services(2)- personal and domestic Constant (not exp.)
Spain Exp() 0.12*** 0.37*** 0.24*** 0.27*** 1.43*** 0.86***
Other OECD Exp()
Latin America Sub-S. Africa Maghreb
Exp()
Exp()
Exp()
Eastern Europe Exp()
0.14*** 0.43*** 0.20*** 0.23*** 1.38*** 0.93
0.05*** 0.30*** 0.07*** 0.14*** 1.58*** 0.78***
0.08*** 0.34*** 0.10*** 0.30*** 1.37*** 0.73***
0.06*** 0.25*** 0.07*** 0.19*** 1.20*** 0.91**
0.06*** 0.27*** 0.07*** 0.16*** 1.83*** 0.69***
R2 -2 log likelihood Chi2
0.276 8492186.18 2206420.1(17df)
0.249 148090.1 34428.99(20df)
0.485 362012.11 187051.0(20df)
0.35 42469.69 12535.8(20df)
0.43 162559.26 65750.5(20df)
0.401 87666.4 31614.8(20df)
12
Table 6. ­ Odds ratios from logistic regression of holding a temporary contract, 2001
Variables
Exp()
Signif
Region of birth by period of arrival (Spain) Other OECD countries, pre-1990 arrival Other OECD countries, post-1990 arrival Latin America, pre-1990 arrival Latin America, post-1990 arrival Africa, pre-1990 arrival Africa, post-1990 arrival Eastern Europe, pre-1990 arrival Eastern Europe, post-1990 arrival Asia, pre-1990 arrival Asia, post-1990 arrival Sex (Male) Female Cohort (Before 1950) 1951-1960 1961-1970 1971-1980 After 1980 Education (No education) Primary education Secondary education University degree Citizenship (Spanish) Foreign Occupation (All non-manual, skilled and semi-skilled manual) Unskilled manual Labour market sector (Agriculture) Industry Construction Hotels and catering Services(1) Services(2)- personal and domestic Constant (not exp.)
1.00 1.13 * 1.11 *** 1.45 *** 1.19 *** 1.88 *** 1.33 *** 2.06 *** 0.99 1.13 *** 1.56 *** 1.50 *** 2.54 *** 5.80 *** 13.10 *** 0.75 *** 0.50 *** 0.45 *** 1.24 *** 1.98 *** 0.24 *** 0.75 *** 0.37 *** 0.24 *** 0.31 *** 0.75 ***
R2 -2 log likelihood Chi2
0.225 14754205.40 2368218.2(26df)
13
Table 7. ­ Odds ratios from logistic regression models of being unemployed, 2001
Variables
All unemployment
Exp()
Signif
Unemployment at labour
market entry, individuals
19-35 of age
Exp()
Signif
Region of birth by period of arrival (Spain)
Other OECD countries, pre-1990 arrival
1.10 ***
0.95 **
Other OECD countries, post-1990 arrival
1.58 ***
0.87 ***
Latin America, pre-1990 arrival
1.12 ***
1.02 *
Latin America, post-1990 arrival
1.18 ***
1.64 ***
Africa, pre-1990 arrival
1.28 ***
1.29 ***
Africa, post-1990 arrival
1.14 ***
1.41 ***
Eastern Europe, pre-1990 arrival
1.07 ***
0.85 **
Eastern Europe, post-1990 arrival
1.20 ***
1.77 ***
Asia, pre-1990 arrival
1.02
1.16 **
Asia, post-1990 arrival
0.93 ***
Sex
(Male)
Female
2.01 ***
1.73 ***
Cohort
(Before 1950)
1951-1960
1.00
1961-1970
1.35 ***
0.42a ***
1971-1980
2.03 ***
0.21 ***
Education
(No education)
Primary education
0.68 ***
0.65 ***
Secondary education
0.45 ***
0.48 ***
University degree
0.28 ***
0.94 ***
Citizenship
(Spanish)
Foreign
0.93 ***
1.11 ***
Constant (not exp.)
0.17 ***
0.11 ***
R2
0.100
0.09
-2 log likelihood
13906243.10
Chi2
5619895.5(18df)
a. For first unemployment, ref. category is youngest (20-24); then 25-29 and 30-34
14
5.- References ARANGO, J. (2003), "Europa, їuna sociedad multicultural en el siglo XXI? El caso de Espaсa", Papeles de Economнa Espaсola, 98, pp. 2-15 BORJAS, G. (1985). Assimilation, changes in cohort quality and the earnings of immigrants, Journal of Labor Economics 3(4): 463-489. BORJAS, G., 1994. The economics of immigration. Journal of Economic Literature XXXII (December): 1667-1717. BORJAS, G. (1999). Heaven's Door. immigration policy and the American economy, Princeton University Press: Princeton. CHISWICK, B. R., 1978. `The effect of assimilation on the earnings of foreign-born men', Journal of Political Economy 86(5): 897-921. COLECTIVO IOE, 1999. Inmigrantes, trabajadores, ciudadanos. Una de las migraciones desde Espaсa. Universidad de Valencia, Patronato Sur-Norte, Colecciуn Oberta, 49. DOMINGO, A. (2002) "Reflexiones demogrбficas sobre la inmigraciуn internacional en los paнses del sur de la Uniуn Europea". Actas del 3 Congreso de la Inmigraciуn en Espaсa, Vol 2, Granada: 2002, pp. 197-212 GARRIDO, L. and TOHARIA, L. (2004), "La situaciуn laboral de los espaсoles y los extranjeros segъn la Encuesta de Poblaciуn Activa", Economistas, 99, pp. 74-87 IZQUIERDO, A. (2003), Inmigraciуn, mercado de trabajo y protecciуn social en Espaсa, Madrid, Consejo Econуmico y Social OECD (2004). First results of the demographic data collection for 2003 in Europe. Statistics in Focus. Population and social conditions. 13/2004. OECD. 15
INDEX 1.- Introduction ................................................................................................................. 1 2.- Immigration trends in Spain........................................................................................ 2 3.- Data and methods ........................................................................................................ 3 4.- Results ......................................................................................................................... 5 5.- References ................................................................................................................. 15 TABLE INDEX 1.- Immigration in Spain, 1981-2003............................................................7 2.- Immigrants in Spain by region of origin, 1981-2003......................................8 3.- Main characteristics of natives and foreign-born individuals older than 16 in the labour force by region of origin, 2001.................................................9 4.- Odds ratios from logistic regression of holding an unskilled position in the labour market.....................................................................................10 5.- Odds ratios from logistic regression models of holding an unskilled position in the labour market, by region of origin, 2001.............................................11 6.- Odds ratios from logistic regression of holding a temporary contract, 2001..........13 7.- Odds ratios from logistic regression models of being unemployed, 2001...14

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